Gastonia, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

756
FXUS62 KGSP 250639
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
139 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge centered over Mexico will keep our region dry
and unseasonably warm for Christmas. A backdoor cold front will
bring a chance of light showers and relatively cooler
temperatures for Friday before near-record high temperatures
return on Saturday. Mild and dry conditions are expected on
Sunday ahead of a cold front which will bring showers on Monday
and usher in arctic air Tuesday through New Year`s Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 AM EDT Thursday:

Key Message: Warm temperatures continue for Christmas Day with
isolated rain showers possible in the mountains near the TN border.

Warm temperatures will be similar to yesterday across the forecast
area, as the pattern hasn`t changed much (upper ridge over the
central CONUS and warm W/NWLY flow aloft). The exception might be
the French Broad Valley, which will have a little more cross-valley
flow and slightly warmer temps. This may allow the KAVL climate site
to reach its record high. For KGSP and KCLT, the records are warmer
than yesterday, so our fcst would have to be off by about 3 deg
for them to be reached (certainly possible, though). (See Climate
section below for the numbers.) Otherwise, moist NWLY 850 mb flow
will continue to produce clouds along/near the TN border with spotty
light rain showers and sprinkles thru the day. Skies should largely
clear out east of the mountains with a light SWLY breeze. Again,
highs will be 15-20 degrees above normal for Christmas Day.

Tonight, a fairly strong (~1032 mb) sfc high will build into
Quebec and force a backdoor cold front south and west thru the
Mid-Atlantic and into the forecast area by daybreak Friday. The
front will not have much moisture with it, but should produce a
stratocu deck across at least the eastern half of the forecast
area by 12z Friday. Some spotty light rain or drizzle possible in
the northern NC Mountains and adjacent foothills, but otherwise,
it should be dry. Lows will be about 15-20 deg above normal
(mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Christmas Day: Abnormal 586dm ridging stretching
across Mexico and the Gulf of America will persist through the
short-term period, but we get a modest, and temporary, reprieve from
the spring-like warmth for Friday thanks to a backdoor cold front.
Surface high pressure behind this front will be transient given
the progressive flow aloft as a shortwave trough moves over
the Great Lakes.  The shortwave will provide some upper-level
moisture to the region while low-level moist and easterly flow
will promote isentropic lift.  Therefore, light rain showers
are possible across the area on Friday, especially across the NC
Piedmont and mountains.  The challenge continues to be with daytime
temperatures, as the cool easterly flow and precipitation would
briefly support in-situ damming for at least a portion of our area.
The location of the backdoor front is also uncertain on Friday,
but is likely to stall across the area.  Therefore, the NBM mean
continues to be a fair compromise given the continued significant
spread of nearly 30 degrees in the ensemble members, but given the
progressive upper-level flow and poorly positioned surface high,
it currently seems unlikely that we will see temperatures on the
lower end of the spread.  It seems more likely that if there is a
temperature bust, it will be to the high side of the guidance, as
the high moves east and low-level winds quickly veer southeasterly
later in the day.  Regardless, the typical southwestern zones in
our forecast area are most likely to see only a slight cool down
for Friday, with well above-normal highs near 70 still expected
across the upper Savannah River Valley.  If the pattern plays out,
the NC Piedmont will see high temperatures in the mid- to upper 50s,
which is still 2-7 degrees above normal.

PoPs increase along the TN border Friday night as the Great Lakes
shortwave propagates into Mid-Atlantic and drapes a weak front
in the vicinity.  Moisture is limited; therefore, only light rain
showers are expected across the mountains.  Meanwhile, southerly
flow ahead of this front ends whatever is left of a cold-air damming
signature.  On Saturday, upper-level ridging re-exerts its presence
across much of the eastern ConUS as another strong trough amplifies
across the western US.  West-northwesterly downsloping flow combined
with increasing thicknesses and clearing skies should allow us
to challenge record highs once again with max temps currently
forecasted to reach 71 at AVL, 74 at CLT, and 75 at GSP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Christmas Day: Yet another backdoor cold front
impacts the area beginning Saturday night as confluent flow aloft
between a strong trough over eastern Canada and shortwave ridging
over the Great Lakes results in a surface ridge axis that stretches
from Quebec to the southern Appalachians.  Meanwhile, a powerful
system begins to eject out of the Rockies, which will keep the
pattern progressive and allow shortwave ridging to quickly propagate
east during the day on Sunday.  Relatively cooler northeasterly
flow early on Sunday will quickly veer southerly later on Sunday
as a high-pressure center drops SE and offshore of NC.  However,
a warm front in the 850-700mb layer will move overhead as well,
allowing mostly cloudy to overcast skies to suppress afternoon
highs.  Since we are following near-record highs from Saturday,
this translates to highs "only" 10-15 degrees above normal or
lower to upper 60s area wide.

PoPs begin to increase Sunday night for the western mountain zones
as an arctic cold front drops into the Ohio Valley.  The timing
on this front is slower than it was in previous cycles and is
now progged to move through the area during the day on Monday.
If this occurs, and this solution is not at all a guarantee
this far out, max temperatures will occur earlier than usual,
perhaps mid-morning across the mountains and early afternoon
across the Piedmont.  Given the thicknesses ahead of the trough,
this may still result in highs in the mid- to upper 60s across
our southern and eastern zones.  If the frontal passage slows
down, highs near 70 remain a possibility across these zones,
which includes the CLT metro.  Highs in the mountain valleys will
still be about 3-7 degrees above normal, but cold-air advection
will be in full-force by Monday afternoon, and temperatures will
drop into the mid- to lower 40s by sunset on our way to lows in
the teens across the mountains for Tuesday morning.  There will
be enough moisture associated with the front for high-end chance
to likely PoPs across the mountains beginning early Monday with
chance PoPs elsewhere during the daytime hours.  With arctic air
rushing in behind the front, there is a brief opportunity for rain
to transition to light snow for higher elevations Monday evening
before moisture abruptly departs overnight.  A few patchy areas of
black ice cannot be ruled out in the mountains overnight Monday,
but most moisture should evaporate from roadways before temperatures
drop below freezing, given wind gusts of 25-45 mph.

Tuesday will be a stark contrast to the record warmth we are
currently experiencing with highs 7-15 degrees below normal.
Highs will struggle to get into the mid- and upper 30s across the
mountain valleys with 40s east.  Winds will relax overnight Tuesday
setting up a frigid night area wide under clear skies.  Expect lows
in the teens across the mountains with lower to mid-20s east.

We remain in a generally NW flow regime through the end of the
period as the upper-level ridge retrogrades to the southwestern US.
With limited moisture, reinforcing shortwaves in this mean flow will
keep us dry and cold through New Year`s Day with highs generally
3-7 degrees below normal both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR-level stratocu under periods of cirrus
expected thru this evening. Wind will be lgt/vrb or calm wind thru
daybreak, then picking up out of the SW at the Piedmont sites,
but staying NNW at KAVL. A few low-end gusts possible during the
mid- to late-aftn hours, the winds become lgt again this evening. A
backdoor cold front will push in from the NE toward the end of the
06z TAF period. Expect winds to shift out of the E at KCLT after
06z with potential MVFR cigs developing before 12z Fri.

Outlook: Possible MVFR or lower cigs develop late tonight and
persist through Friday night across most of the area. VFR returns
for Saturday. Another backdoor front pushes in late Saturday night
into early Sunday and may result in some low cigs.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 12-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      71 2021     14 1983     59 2015     -7 1983
   KCLT      77 1955     22 1983     63 2015      4 1983
   KGSP      78 1955     22 1983     61 2015      6 1983



RECORDS FOR 12-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      78 1971     17 1902     55 2015      0 1983
   KCLT      77 2021     27 1983     58 2015      6 1983
                                        1964
   KGSP      76 2021     28 1983     62 1987      5 1985
                2015        1980



RECORDS FOR 12-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1971     19 1902     59 2015      3 1925
   KCLT      72 2021     22 1892     65 2015     15 1970
                2015                                1948
                1971                                1925
   KGSP      75 1971     29 1925     64 2015     12 1925

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...GSP